Global Warming Myths: Bogus Science and Exaggerated
Claims for Climate Change
Introduction
I get many questions about the science behind the global warming controversy. It seems that many conservatives feel compelled to deny the connection between global warming and greenhouse gases (although one would be hard-pressed to find anyone who would deny that carbon dioxide and methane are greenhouse gases that are increasing rapidly in our atmosphere). Global warming deniers often cite data that is skewed or even false in order to support their claims. Radical environmentalists exaggerate claims to promote their political agendas. This page is an attempt to address some standard myths that have arisen among those who deny or exaggerate how humans are responsible for earth's warming temperatures. As with the main global warming page, all the original data is cited and presented so that you can confirm the validity of the science.
Topics
- Sunspot activity causes global warming?
- Gamma cosmic rays (GCR) cause global warming?
- Volcanoes produce more carbon dioxide than all carbon emissions produced by humans
- Urban heat island effects account for global warming statistics
- Global warming will result in a sea level rise of 9 feet this century
- Global warming will result in increased temperatures of 9°C
Sunspot activity causes global warming?
Figure 1. Sunspot activity compared to global
temperatures![]() Sunspot data from National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (National Geophysical Data Center) (Original Data ![]() Global Temperature data from GISS Surface Temperature Analysis2 (Original Data ![]() |
Rodney Viereck, NOAA Space Environment Center, brought up an idea that sea surface temperature (SST)
correlated with sunspot number.1 However, the data just didn't seem quite
right. Since sunspots cycle over
a short period (ten years), it seemed that Mr. Viereck had used some really
bad data. So I downloaded the sunspots data for the entire
period of 1880 to 2006. This is what it looks like (global surface
temperatures in blue and sunspots in green). The "correlation" obviously
disappears when one examines the data. Athough the number of sunspots has
risen, the number has remained constant since 1960, the period in which global
temperatures have risen the most. Obviously, the correlation doesn't really hold
up.
Gamma cosmic rays (GCR) cause global warming?
Figure 2. Gamma cosmic rays compared to global
temperatures![]() GCR data from The Cosmic Ray Overview (University of New Hampshire) (Original Data ![]() Global Temperature data from GISS Surface Temperature Analysis2 (Original Data ![]() |
Danish researchers Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen have
demonstrated that cosmic rays can cause cloud cover to vary as much as 2%
within a period of 5 years. This produces a change in the heating of the earth's surface
by up to 1.2 W/m2. The claim is that since, the IPCC has
estimated that CO2 emissions since the Industrial Revolution have
caused an increase of 1.6 W/m2,2 it is possible that cosmic rays
have accounted for 75% of global warming. The problem is that the latest Svensmark and Friis-Christensen data contradicted much of their earlier
work. Like the sunspot data, when the data is plotted over many decades, the
trend disappears quite well. Of course, solar activity and GCR do impact
climate in the short term (over their 10 year cycles). The problem is that
there are no long term trends for either, whereas there are long term trends
for climate.
Volcanoes produce more carbon dioxide than all carbon emissions produced by humans
The claim is that volcanic action around the world in one day spews forth
more greenhouse gases than all of man's activities in one year. The claim is
completely false. In fact, all the volcanic activity over the entire world
for one entire year emits 130-230 teragrams carbon dioxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano).
In contrast, human activities produce over 7000 teragrams/year (1
petragram=1000 tergrams) (See Figure 3, right). So, volcanoes emit only 3% the amount that humans do.
In fact, human activity exceed that of volcanic activity early in the
Industrial Revolution (by 1870).
Urban heat island effects account for global warming
Many skeptics claim that the location of temperature measuring stations
near cities results in readings that are artificially inflated from the real
temperature measurements. This problem is known as urban heat island effects. These
effects are real but local, and have a negligible influence (less than
0.006°C per decade over land and zero over the oceans)2 on
global temperature values. In addition, the largest changes in global
temperatures have been recorded north of 60° latitude, where there are
no large cities at all (Figure 4).
Global warming will result in a sea level rise of 9 feet this century
Figure 5. Changes in Sea Level
Relative to Global Temperatures![]() Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5 |
The IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report indicates an observed sea level
rise of 0.18 m (7 in) per century for the period of 1960-2003. However, the
rate is increasing rapidly, such that the rate for the last ten years of the
period are nearly double (0.31 m/century). The IPCC puts the projected sea
level rise for the 21st century at 0.26 – 0.59 m (10-18 in). Sea levels have
risen 0.2 m (8 in) in the last 150 years (Figure 5).
Global warming will result in increased temperatures of 9°C
The IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report puts the amount of temperature increase at 1.8°C/century if global carbon dioxide concentrations remain at year 2000 levels (extremely unlikely). If fossil fuel usage increases dramatically (probably also unlikely), the projected increase would be 4.0°C/century. The most likely value would be 2-3°C, most of which would occur in high latitudes and/or during the winter months.
Conclusion 
Many myths surround climate change science. The fact that climate change has become a political issue has not helped matters. As conservatives and liberals tend to line up at the extremes and promote their own hype, the voice of reason and science tends to be drowned out. At this point, it seems very unlikely that a natural cause is behind our world's increasing temperatures. Even so, the scare tactics of radical environmentalists and liberal politicians does nothing to prioritize our response to global warming.
Help us add to this page
If you are a global warming skeptic or radical environmentalist, send in your best ideas so I can research the data to present on this page. Please e-mail your suggestions to Rich Deem. Don't worry, your name and/or email address will never be revealed. Please see our Privacy Policy for more information.
Related Pages 
- Global Warming: Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?
- Global Warming: Deceptive Article in Los Angeles Times - Oops! We forgot to tell you the real data!
- Is Christianity anti-Environmental?
References 
- Rodney Viereck, NOAA Space Environment Center, The Sun-Climate Connection (Did Sunspots Sink the Titanic?)
- Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Chapter 2 Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Last updated April 23, 2008